Earlier springs and warmer autumns present more time for ticks to thrive.
August 6, 2024, 7:02 PM STOCK IMAGE/Getty ImagesTick populations could see a "boom" in traditionally cooler regions should global temperatures continue to rise, possibly increasing the likelihood of the spread of tick-borne diseases, according to new research.
Even with just a temperature increase of only 1 degree Celsius, regions that are typically cooler -- such as Scotland, where the research was conducted -- could see tick densities increase by 26% to 99% by 2080, according to a paper published in the Royal Society Journals on Tuesday.
Researchers built a mathematical model to predict how tick populations will change in time in response to changes in temperature, Rachel Norman, a professor at the University of Stirling in Scotland and author of the paper, told ABC News.
Included in the model are considerations for types of landscape and the availability for ticks to feed on a host between each of its life stages -- egg, larvae and adult, allowing researchers to study the complicated interactions between the landscape, temperatures, the ticks and the hosts they're feeding on, Norman said. Hosts are typically deer or small rodents but can also be birds, dogs and people.
As Scotland has warmed, ticks have moved further into the mountains and areas that they traditionally would not have been able to survive because temperatures in the past were too cold, Norman said, adding that ticks tend to thrive in wooded areas with undergrowth, should other conditions, like temperature and the availability of hosts, are present as well.
In some areas in Scotland, cooler temperatures are limiting tick populations. But in other regions that are now warm enough, tick populations can increase significantly because there are plenty of hosts for them to feed on, Norman said.
